S-Risk / Suffering Risk
Updated 2026-08-08
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
A concept from the effective altruism and longtermism literature, developed by researchers including Brian Tomasik. S-risk covers scenarios in which technology, most often misaligned artificial intelligence, creates vast quantities of intense suffering among conscious minds, potentially simulated ones, over extremely long periods. It is distinguished from existential risk, which concerns extinction or permanent loss of value. The underlying claim is that continued existence under extreme suffering can be worse than nonexistence, making S-risk more urgent than a survival-only framing implies.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Widen the frame: evaluate technology outcomes by the quality of continued existence, not survival alone - Size the harm: multiply the number of affected minds by duration and intensity when ranking risks - Set guardrails early: constrain research so extreme-suffering outcomes are ruled out before deployment
Anchor fast decisions
Expected harm scales with intensity times the number of minds times duration. If a technology could generate enormous numbers of conscious experiences, even a small probability that those experiences are dominated by suffering yields expected disvalue far beyond that of ordinary harms. Extinction, by contrast, forecloses all future value and all future suffering alike, which is why S-risk can outrank it in ethical weight.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_of_astronomical_sufferingverified
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