MENTAL MODEL · M13129

Unilateralist's Curse

SystemsHigh supportGame Ethics

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Updated 2026-08-17

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INTRODUCTION

English translation pending.

CORE DEFINITION

An ethical and game-theoretic observation introduced by Nick Bostrom, Toby Ord and Anders Sandberg in a 2012 paper, which argued for a principle of conformity where a single agent's action can impose costs on others. The core claim is a selection effect: when only one party needs to act for the outcome to occur, the action is disproportionately taken by those who judge the risks to be small, so the decision is effectively made by the least cautious of those affected. The authors proposed restraint when a significant number of others would disagree, while noting that the same mechanism also produces valuable minority-driven progress.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

- Pre-action check: Ask whether acting alone would bind others who would have decided differently. - Group decision design: Set a convention that contentious unilateral moves require consulting those affected. - Risk calibration: Treat your own low estimate of harm as a warning sign rather than a green light.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

When an outcome requires only one willing actor, the probability that it happens is driven by the maximum willingness across the group rather than the average. Individuals differ in how they estimate risk, so the action is systematically selected from the tail of lowest perceived risk, and the resulting decision reflects the most risk-tolerant member rather than the group's judgement. This selection effect grows with the number of participants and with the difficulty of estimating harm, which is why it is most dangerous where consequences are irreversible or poorly understood.

MINIMUM ACTION

In progress 0/1

Practice this model in one real situation:

Before acting, ask whether the outcome depends on you alone or requires others to agree. 2. Estimate the harm and check whether the people affected would accept your estimate. 3. If a substantial share would object, pause and consult them first. 4. Write down how reversible the action is and what waiting would cost. 5. If you proceed anyway, record the reasoning so the decision can be reviewed later.

Check to track your progress (stored locally)

Learning progress0%

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Source support: Explicit

link
analogypkm.comhttps://analogypkm.com/experience/mental-models/zh/159_单边主义诅咒.htmlZH · Explicit
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