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MENTAL MODEL · M4016

Simpson's Paradox

Simpson's Paradox
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-28

CORE DEFINITION

Simpson's paradox is a phenomenon in probability and statistics in which a trend appears in several groups of data but disappears or reverses when the groups are combined. This result is often encountered in social science and medical science statistics, and is particularly problematic when frequency data are unduly given causal interpretations. The paradox can be resolved when confounding variables are controlled for.

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Simpson's paradox is a phenomenon in probability and statistics in which a trend appears in several groups of data but disappears or reverses when the groups are combined. This result is often encountered in social science and medical science statistics, and is particularly problematic when frequency data are unduly given causal interpretations. The paradox can be resolved when confounding variables are controlled for.

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When data are divided into groups, each group may show a certain trend, but after combining the groups, the trend reverses. The mechanism is that confounding variables or different sample weights among groups change the overall direction.

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradoxZH · Explicit
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