Cognitive Scaffold

Preparing your thinking workspace

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MENTAL MODEL · M0270

Correlation does not imply Causation

Correlation does not imply Causation
StructureHigh supportLogic
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

Two variables changing together (e.g., ice cream sales and drowning incidents both rise in summer) does not mean one causes the other. There may be confounding variables (e.g., temperature).

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

- Anti-deception filter: core mindset for identifying pseudoscience and marketing fluff (e.g., "people who drink red wine live longer" – is it because red wine is effective, or because those who can afford red wine have better healthcare?).

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

Correlation only shows co-variation, not causation; there may be a third variable or reverse causation. Prevents over-inference.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

  • link
    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causationZH · Explicit
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