German Tank Problem
Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-28
CORE DEFINITION
The German tank problem estimates N from observed identifiers under a model of items numbered 1 through N and uniform random sampling without replacement. It is named after the Allies’ historical use of captured equipment serial numbers to estimate German production in World War II.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
Use sequential identifiers to estimate population size when numbering and sampling assumptions are reasonable, making uncertainty explicit.
Anchor fast decisions
The sample maximum m generally falls below the population bound N. For k observations sampled uniformly without replacement from 1 through N, m + m/k - 1 is unbiased for N. The sample minimum cannot simply replace the maximum.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- zh.wikipedia.orghttps://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%BE%B7%E5%9B%BD%E5%9D%A6%E5%85%8B%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98verified
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_tank_problemverified
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