Cognitive Scaffold

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MENTAL MODEL · M4012

Birthday Paradox

Birthday Paradox
Learn & MetacognitionHigh supportCognitive Science
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-28

CORE DEFINITION

In probability theory, the birthday problem asks for the probability that, in a set of n randomly chosen people, at least two will share the same birthday. The birthday paradox is the counterintuitive fact that only 23 people are needed for that probability to exceed 50%.

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In probability theory, the birthday problem asks for the probability that, in a set of n randomly chosen people, at least two will share the same birthday. The birthday paradox is the counterintuitive fact that only 23 people are needed for that probability to exceed 50%.

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The birthday paradox states that in a group of only 23 people, the probability that two share a birthday exceeds 50%, which is far from intuitive. It reveals that the number of pairs grows quadratically with the group size.

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problemZH · Explicit
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