Cognitive Scaffold

Preparing your thinking workspace

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MENTAL MODEL · M4011

Monty Hall Problem

Monty Hall Problem
DecideHigh supportDecision Science
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-28

CORE DEFINITION

The Monty Hall problem is a brain teaser, in the form of a probability puzzle, based nominally on the American television game show Let's Make a Deal and named after its original host, Monty Hall. The problem was originally posed in a letter by Steve Selvin to the American Statistician in 1975. It became famous as a question from reader Craig F. Whitaker's letter quoted in (and solved by) Marilyn

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

The Monty Hall problem is a brain teaser, in the form of a probability puzzle, based nominally on the American television game show Let's Make a Deal and named after its original host, Monty Hall. The

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

This is the Monty Hall problem: after you choose a door, the host, who knows where the prize is, opens a losing door. Switching doors increases your chance of winning from 1/3 to 2/3, because your initial chance of being wrong (2/3) is transferred to the remaining door when you switch.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Practice this model in one real situation:

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problemZH · Explicit
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