Cognitive Scaffold

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MENTAL MODEL · M2848

Littlewood's Law

Littlewood's Law
TechnicalHigh supportProbability Theory
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

If we define a "miracle" as an event with a probability of one in a million, then for an awake person (experiencing about 30,000 "events" per day), on average, they will encounter a miracle once a month. - Scaffolding role: disenchantment of coincidences. - This explains why we often encounter strange occurrences like "speak of the devil" or "dreams coming true." Under the law of large numbers, miracles are not only statistically possible but inevitable. Do not misinterpret mathematical inevitability as mystical "chosenness" or "fate."

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

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Disenchantment of coincidences. - This explains why we often encounter strange occurrences like "speak of the devil" or "dreams coming true." Under the law of large numbers, miracles are not only statistically possible but inevitable. Do not misinterpret mathematical inevitability as mystical "chosenness" or "fate."

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Proposed by J. E. Littlewood. Define a "miracle" as an event with a probability of about 10⁻⁶; a person experiences about 30,000 "events" per day, so on average, they will encounter a "miracle" once a month. The mechanism is "inevitability under large numbers"—the accumulation of massive low-probability events makes rare events statistically inevitable.

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Littlewood%27s_lawZH · Explicit
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