Cognitive Scaffold

Preparing your thinking workspace

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MENTAL MODEL · M0924

Russian Roulette

Russian Roulette
TechnicalHigh supportProbability Theory
Included
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

Even if there is only a 1/6 probability of death, once death occurs, all previous winnings become meaningless. This illustrates that ensemble probability (group average) is not equal to time probability (individual outcome).

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

Distinguish between average and individual. Even if statistics show that something has a 'low average risk,' if there is a possibility of 'blow-up' (death), the risk is unacceptable for you as an individual.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

Even if there is only a 1/6 probability of death, once death occurs, all previous winnings become meaningless. Ensemble probability (group average) ≠ time probability (individual outcome); if there is a 'blow-up' risk, it is unacceptable for the individual.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

  • link
    zh.wikipedia.orghttps://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%BF%84%E7%BE%85%E6%96%AF%E8%BC%AA%E7%9B%A4ZH · Explicit
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