Cognitive Scaffold

Preparing your thinking workspace

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MENTAL MODEL · M1599

Hockey Stick Growth

Hockey Stick Growth
Learn & MetacognitionHigh supportCognitive Science
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

Refers to data (revenue, user count) that is flat or even stagnant for a long period (the flat part of the stick), then suddenly hits a turning point and skyrockets exponentially (the blade part of the stick).

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

Beware of false predictions. Every entrepreneur draws a hockey stick curve in their business plan, but 99% die on the flat part. As a cognitive tool, it reminds us: without underlying structural changes (such as activation of network effects), the surge will not happen automatically.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

Growth is flat in the early stage (limited by accumulation before the critical point / network effects not activated). Once a structural inflection point is crossed (such as network effects, channel fission), marginal costs drop sharply, growth self-reinforces, and it skyrockets exponentially. The mechanism is 'positive feedback after the critical point'.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Practice this model in one real situation:

Check to track your progress (stored locally)
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Source support: Explicit

  • link
    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_graphZH · Explicit
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