Cognitive Scaffold

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MENTAL MODEL · M1034

Inductivist Turkey

Inductivist Turkey
CultureHigh supportPhilosophy
Included
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

A turkey observes that the farmer feeds it every day, and through induction concludes that 'the farmer loves me'. This conclusion is confirmed every day until it is slaughtered on Thanksgiving.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

Beware of the deception of continuity. Past stable data (feeding) cannot predict future abrupt changes (slaughter). In finance and security, the greatest risks often hide behind the most stable charts.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

Homologous to the 'inductivist turkey', emphasizing how inductive conclusions that are continuously confirmed can collapse at inflection points, warning people not to be deceived by long-term surface continuity, and highlighting the anesthetic effect of 'past stable data' on judgment.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

  • link
    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkey_illusionZH · Explicit
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