MENTAL MODEL · M0024

Mediocrity Principle

CultureHigh supportPhilosophy

Included

Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-28

CORE DEFINITION

The mediocrity principle is an inferential heuristic: without contrary evidence, do not begin by assuming that oneself, Earth, or an observed phenomenon must be exceptional; consider ordinary membership in a reference class. It is related to the Copernican principle, but is not an empirical law making every observer necessarily typical.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

Check whether an inference relies on unsupported exceptional status and specify the comparison group. Start with relevant base-rate information while examining sampling and observer-selection biases.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

Typicality acts as a prior assumption favoring common cases in a reference class. Its appropriateness depends on that class and the process making a sample observable. Merely observing something now does not make the midpoint of its lifespan most likely.

MINIMUM ACTION

In progress 0/1

Practice this model in one real situation:

Write down the prediction and comparison group, and explain why the object can be treated as a sample from that group. Collect its baseline distribution, list selection biases and evidence of exceptional characteristics, then compare conclusions with and without the typicality assumption.

Check to track your progress (stored locally)

Learning progress0%

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Source support: Explicit

link
zh.wikipedia.orghttps://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%B9%B3%E5%BA%B8%E5%8E%9F%E7%90%86ZH · Explicit
verified
link
en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediocrity_principleEN
verified

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