Cognitive Scaffold

Preparing your thinking workspace

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MENTAL MODEL · M0625

Hail Mary

Hail Mary
BusinessHigh supportStrategic Management
Included
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

In the final moments of a game, the quarterback throws an extremely long pass toward the end zone, with a very low success rate, but if successful, it can turn the game around.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

A desperate gamble. When following the usual course is doomed to fail, the rational strategy is to take the maximum risk and make a 'Hail Mary' attempt. For example, a startup making a complete pivot before running out of funds.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

When the conventional strategy is certain to lose, the expected utility should shift toward a very low probability but high reward gamble. Because the 'certain loss' alternative has an expected value of zero (or negative), a Hail Mary, though low in success rate, may be the only path with positive expected value.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hail_MaryZH · Explicit
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