Risk Probability

CORE DEFINITION

A decision framework that treats risk as a measurable quantity rather than a category. Every decision under uncertainty carries a distribution of outcomes, and assigning probabilities to those outcomes while pairing each with its consequence converts vague worry into a comparable expected value. The practical rule that follows is asymmetric: when the downside is survivable and the probability of success is high enough, taking the risk is rational, and avoiding all risk is itself a choice with costs. Estimates come from historical frequency, base rates, statistical models and structured expert judgement, and should be stated with their uncertainty rather than as precise numbers.