Planning Fallacy
Updated 2026-08-15
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
Also called get-there-itis, plan continuation bias is the tendency of a decision maker to persist with an original course of action even when significant changes in conditions indicate that the plan should be revised or abandoned. The core proposition is that commitment to a plan grows as investment accumulates and the goal approaches, so the willingness to abort falls exactly when new information most warrants it. The key qualification is that the bias is not stubbornness of temperament but a default of automatic processing under load, which is why countermeasures must be procedural rather than motivational.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Kill criteria: define the conditions that require abandoning the plan before starting it. - Independent monitor: assign someone other than the decision maker to watch for those conditions. - Forced abort: on trigger, execute the exit without reopening the debate about sunk cost.
Anchor fast decisions
Effort already spent is recorded as an investment, so abandoning the plan registers as a loss, while continuing registers as preserving the possibility of success. As the goal approaches, the anticipated completion adds further pressure, and under high workload the evaluation of new conditions is skipped in favor of the routine already in progress. This is why the correction must be external: the person most invested in the plan is least able to judge whether it should continue.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costverified
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