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MENTAL MODEL · M11930

The Mantis Stalks the Cicada

The Mantis Stalks the Cicada
BusinessHigh supportStrategic Management
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Updated 2026-08-22

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INTRODUCTION

English translation pending.

CORE DEFINITION

A Chinese fable in which a mantis concentrates on a cicada, unaware of the oriole behind it, which is itself unaware of the boy with a slingshot below. The core proposition is second-order thinking: every action provokes reactions from parties outside your immediate frame, and the final mover often collects the prize. The key qualification is that the chain must be traced to its end; a partial map that stops at the visible rival creates false confidence rather than safety. The fable is traditionally read as a warning against greed that blinds.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

- Chain mapping: draw who acts, who reacts, and who waits behind each actor before you commit. - Reaction forecast: ask what your move invites from parties not yet in the room. - Endgame check: identify the party most likely to harvest the result and price them in.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

Attention is zero-sum, so concentrating on a prey reduces vigilance toward everything else. Each actor in a sequence optimizes against the target directly ahead, which leaves its flank exposed to the next actor in line. Because the last mover bears the least cost and captures the most value, chains of self-interested pursuit systematically transfer the gains backward. The mechanism explains why winning the visible contest often means losing the larger game.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

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    zh.wikipedia.orghttps://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%AF%B4%E8%8B%91ZH · Explicit
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