Causal Loop Diagram

CORE DEFINITION

A causal loop diagram represents a system as variables connected by arrows whose polarity shows whether the linked variables move in the same direction or in opposite directions, while closed chains of arrows form reinforcing loops that amplify change or balancing loops that seek a target. The core proposition is that a system's behavior over time comes from its feedback structure rather than from the individual variables, so drawing that structure makes behavior that seems puzzling become predictable. The key qualification is that loop polarity and delays must be identified correctly, since a mislabeled link or an ignored delay inverts the conclusion, and correlation between two variables does not establish a causal arrow between them.