Simulation Heuristic
Updated 2026-08-13
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
The simulation heuristic, described by Kahneman and Tversky, holds that people estimate probability and causality by the ease with which they can mentally simulate a scenario. The core proposition is that imaginability substitutes for frequency, so an outcome that is easy to picture feels more likely than an equally probable one that is hard to picture. The key qualification is that the heuristic is a special case of availability: it distorts estimates when vivid cases are easy to construct, and it works acceptably when the ease of simulation tracks the real frequency.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Simulation flag: notice when you have built a mental scenario rather than consulted a rate. - Ease versus rate: separate how easily you can picture the outcome from how often it actually occurs. - Data calibration: replace the imagined scenario with a measured frequency before deciding.
Anchor fast decisions
Constructing a scenario requires retrieving the intermediate steps that would make it happen, and ease of retrieval is influenced by familiarity, vividness, and narrative coherence rather than by probability. A coherent story is easy to build and therefore feels probable, while a statistical pattern that is hard to narrate feels unlikely. The substitution happens automatically, so the distortion is invisible unless the ease itself is questioned.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simulation_heuristicverified
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