Cognitive Scaffold

Preparing your thinking workspace

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MENTAL MODEL · M8912

Surface Area of Luck

Surface Area of Luck
BehaviorHigh supportPersonal Development
Included
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Updated 2026-08-15

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INTRODUCTION

English translation pending.

CORE DEFINITION

A formulation attributed to Jason Roberts, holding that the chance of encountering unexpected opportunity is proportional to doing work and telling others about it. The model treats luck as exposure: more activity in a field and more visible communication of that activity increase the number of people who could connect you with an opportunity. The qualification is that volume without substance raises exposure without value, and the model addresses opportunity discovery rather than the random component of outcomes.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

- Use Work Out Loud: publish what you are building so people who need it can find you. - Use Exposure Audit: count the people and platforms through which your work could be discovered.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

Opportunities reach people through social and informational contact, so the probability of a useful connection rises with the number of contacts and the clarity of what you can do. Doing work creates something worth connecting to, and telling others makes it discoverable, so the two factors multiply rather than add.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Practice this model in one real situation:

Check to track your progress (stored locally)
Learning progress0%
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Source support: Explicit

  • link
    codusoperandi.comhttps://www.codusoperandi.com/posts/increasing-your-luck-surface-areaZH · Explicit
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