Reverse Causality Check
Updated 2026-08-11
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
A reverse causality check is a test for whether the causal arrow points the opposite way, whether it is A leading to B or B leading to A. The need arises because correlation is symmetric and carries no direction, and the check works by either swapping the roles of the variables in the model or by using an instrument or a timing test that can distinguish the two directions.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Swap the roles: re-estimate the model with the two variables exchanged. - Use an instrument: find a variable that moves one without touching the other. - Compare the directions: let the evidence rather than the narrative pick.
Anchor fast decisions
A correlation is produced by a forward path, a reverse path, or a common cause, and the three cannot be told apart by the correlation itself. Introducing a variable that moves one end without touching the other breaks the tie, because that variable's effect is only transmitted along whichever path actually exists.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- doi.orghttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4005824verified
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