Cognitive Scaffold

Preparing your thinking workspace

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MENTAL MODEL · M7675

Cromwell's Rule

Cromwell's Rule
Learn & MetacognitionHigh supportCognitive Science
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

"Never assign a probability of 0 (impossible) or 1 (certain) to any event." Unless it is a logical truth (e.g., 1+1=2). -

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

Prevention of a closed mind. - According to Bayes' theorem, if you assign a prior probability of 0, then no matter how much new evidence appears later, the posterior probability will always be 0. This means your thinking is locked, and new information cannot enter. Even when facing the most absurd viewpoint, you should leave a 0.0001% possibility (Open Mind). This is the mathematical basis for maintaining cognitive evolution.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

Never assign a probability of 0 or 1 to an event (except for logical truths). Because in Bayes' theorem, if the prior is 0, the posterior is always 0, new evidence cannot enter, and thinking is locked.

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cromwell%27s_ruleZH · Explicit
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