Fact-Based Scenario Planning
Updated 2026-08-10
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
Projecting possible future scenarios on the basis of known facts, not inventing them from nothing, but extending logically from where the facts stand. As a scaffold it is deduction with something to hold on to: scenario planning is not science fiction, and it has to stay anchored to the facts that are already established.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Anchor lock: fix the verified facts that every single scenario has to respect. - Uncertainty axes: name the key dimensions along which the future is still open. - Constraint check: test each built scenario for its strict consistency with the known facts.
Anchor fast decisions
Starting from known facts, possible scenarios are extended by logic rather than invented from nothing. The mechanism is fact-anchored projection: the roots of the scenario must be planted in verified fact for the branches to be credible, which is what keeps the exercise from drifting into science fiction.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planningverified
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