Cognitive Scaffold

Preparing your thinking workspace

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MENTAL MODEL · M7242

Event Tree Analysis, ETA

Event Tree Analysis, ETA
SystemsHigh supportSystems Theory
Included
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

Contrary to fault tree analysis: it starts from an initial event and moves forward, branching according to the success/failure of each safety barrier, calculating the probabilities of different consequences.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

Forward reasoning, exhaustive path enumeration. Systematically explores all branches of "if X happens, what could result."

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

From the initiating event, it recursively derives possible consequences and probabilities along each branch, expanding forward to identify risk paths and key mitigation points.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

  • link
    zh.wikipedia.orghttps://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6%E6%A0%91%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90ZH · Explicit
    verified

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