Hot Hand Fallacy
Updated 2026-08-06
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
The hot hand fallacy is the mistaken belief that success in independent trials raises the probability of the next success, as when a basketball player who has made several shots is thought to be on a streak. Because the trials are independent, the previous outcomes carry no information about the next one. Later research has also shown that genuine streakiness exists in some tasks, so the error lies in assuming independence or dependence without checking the data.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Test independence: check whether outcomes in this domain actually depend on previous ones. - Resist doubling down: do not increase stakes simply because of a run of wins. - Expect reversion: assume unusually good performance will move back toward its average.
Anchor fast decisions
A short run of successes is easily produced by chance, but the mind reads it as evidence of a changed underlying ability. Attention focuses on the streak rather than on the base rate of success, so the next attempt is judged more likely to succeed than it is. Where the trials are genuinely independent, that judgment has no support, and regression to the mean follows.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- zh.wikipedia.orghttps://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%86%B1%E6%89%8B%E8%AC%AC%E8%AA%A4verified
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