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MENTAL MODEL · M6174

NUTS - Nuclear Utilization Target Selection

NUTS - Nuclear Utilization Target Selection
DecideHigh supportGame Theory
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Updated 2026-08-05

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INTRODUCTION

English translation pending.

CORE DEFINITION

The doctrine is the position, contrasted with mutual assured destruction, that nuclear weapons are usable instruments of war rather than purely deterrent threats. Its advocates argue that striking an adversary's nuclear and military forces, rather than its cities, can limit damage and keep escalation under control, so a nuclear war might be fought and won. Mutual assured destruction holds the opposite: any use escalates toward annihilation, so the weapons exist only to prevent their own use.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

- Look below the threshold: ask whether a supposedly absolute limit contains usable gradations. - Choose targets as signals: treat what you strike as a message about the intent behind it. - Define escalation steps: name the rungs between limited action and total conflict before acting.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

If an adversary believes any nuclear use means total war, then limited options disappear and small provocations threaten the worst outcome. Offering a gradation of usable strikes is meant to give both sides a rung to stop on, making threats more credible and escalation more controllable. The same logic makes the doctrine dangerous, since each limited strike is a bet that the other side will not treat it as total.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_utilization_target_selectionZH · Explicit
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