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MENTAL MODEL · M5361

Pessimistic Meta-Induction

Pessimistic Meta-Induction
Learn & MetacognitionHigh supportCognitive Science
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Updated 2026-08-04

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INTRODUCTION

English translation pending.

CORE DEFINITION

An argument associated with Lakatos and later anti-realists, drawn from the history of science. Many theories once regarded as true and empirically successful, such as geocentrism, phlogiston, and the luminiferous ether, were eventually rejected, so a track record of success is not a guarantee of truth. By induction over that record, current theories should be expected to be superseded or corrected as well. The conclusion is a stance of fallibilism rather than scepticism: present knowledge may be the best available model without being final. Qualification: the induction suggests that theories will be revised, not that they have no predictive value now.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

- Dynamic humility: hold current knowledge as the best working model rather than as final truth. - Replacement question: ask of any consensus whether it could be displaced as geocentrism was. - Fallibility room: leave explicit space for error in your claims without abandoning their present use.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

The argument runs from a historical record to an expectation about the present. Because earlier theories that were both successful and widely accepted were eventually replaced, the base rate of replacement is high, and a currently successful theory inherits that base rate. The result is not paralysis but a disciplined expectation of future revision, which keeps inquiry open to evidence that would overturn the current account.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pessimistic_inductionZH · Explicit
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