Van Valen's Law
Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30
CORE DEFINITION
The probability of extinction of a biological lineage is constant and independent of its duration of existence. That is, species do not become safer by "living longer."
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
Reveals the non-cumulative nature of survival. In business and technology, the "age" of a company or technology does not guarantee its future safety. Each period faces the same intensity of competition and elimination pressure.
Anchor fast decisions
The extinction probability of a biological lineage is constant and independent of how long it has existed—"Red Queen"-style continuous competition makes each period face the same intensity of elimination pressure, and survival advantages do not accumulate over time.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/4Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leigh_Van_Valenverified
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