Pascal's Mugging
Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-28
CORE DEFINITION
In philosophy, Pascal's mugging is a thought experiment demonstrating a problem in expected utility maximization. A rational agent should choose actions whose outcomes, when weighted by their probability, have higher utility. But some very unlikely outcomes may have very great utilities, and these utilities can grow faster than the probability diminishes. Hence the agent should focus more on vastly improbable but catastrophic events, leading to counterintuitive conclusions.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
In philosophy, Pascal's mugging is a thought experiment demonstrating a problem in expected utility maximization. A rational agent should choose actions whose outcomes, when weighted by their probability, have higher utility. But some very unlikely outcomes may have very great utilities, and these utilities can grow faster than the probability diminishes. Hence the agent should focus more on vastly improbable but catastrophic events, leading to counterintuitive conclusions.
Anchor fast decisions
Pascal's mugging is a decision-theoretic thought experiment: a mugger claims, 'Give me $5, or else I will cause a astronomically large disaster with a tiny probability.' Since the expected harm = tiny probability × huge loss can still be large, naive expected utility maximization would be extorted. It exposes the flaw in 'expected utility × extremely low probability'.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/3Practice this model in one real situation:
account_treeGenealogyexpand_more
menu_bookReferencesexpand_more
Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s_muggingverified
PRIVATE NOTES · Only visible to you
SAVED Q&A
ENTRY Q&A · Private saving available
Ask with a clear boundary
thinkingmodels answers from published entry context only.
Your question is sent to thinkingmodels. The answer uses public entry context only.
RELATED MODELS