The Wait Calculation
Updated 2026-08-08
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
Popularized by Tim Urban, the wait calculation weighs an irreversible decision taken now against the same decision taken later. It compares the benefit of acting with today's technology to the benefit of waiting for a better one, discounted by the suffering or lost opportunity endured while waiting. The key qualifiers are irreversibility and growth rate: waiting wins only when progress is fast and the option to act later stays open, so the answer flips across medicine, careers and consumer hardware.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Irreversibility test: check whether acting now closes the door on acting later at all. - Progress discount: compare today's payoff against the payoff of a faster future option. - Cost of waiting: price the suffering or drift incurred during every year of delay.
Anchor fast decisions
Technology improves along a curve while waiting carries a real cost, so the two sides of the comparison are asymmetric. If the improvement rate is high and the decision can still be made later, the future option dominates; if the decision is irreversible or the wait itself is costly, acting now dominates. The calculation makes that trade-off explicit instead of resolving it by mood.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_travelverified
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