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MENTAL MODEL · M3833

Hindsight Bias

Hindsight Bias
BehaviorHigh supportSocial Psychology
Included
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

After an event has occurred, people tend to believe that they 'knew it all along' and overestimate their ability to have predicted the event beforehand. Commonly known as 'being wise after the event.'

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

It affects our learning from experience. If we always think the outcome was 'obvious,' we won't deeply review the uncertainty and complexity in the original decision-making process, thus failing to truly learn lessons. When doing a review, we must force ourselves to return to the 'before the event' perspective and restore the information and cognitive state at that time.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

Hindsight bias, the illusion of 'I knew it all along,' distorts the evaluation of decision quality.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

  • link
    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_biasZH · Explicit
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