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MENTAL MODEL · M3692

Evidence-based Policy Making

Evidence-based Policy Making
TechnicalHigh supportScientific Methodology
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Updated 2026-08-05

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INTRODUCTION

English translation pending.

CORE DEFINITION

An approach to governance requiring policy choices to be justified by the best available evidence and tested where feasible with randomized or quasi-experimental evaluation. Its core proposition is that policy effects should be measured rather than assumed, and that evidence quality varies systematically from anecdote up to controlled trial. It applies to decisions with measurable outcomes and does not resolve value conflicts that no amount of evidence can settle.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

- Question framing: restate a policy proposal as a testable causal claim about outcomes. - Evidence grading: rank what you have from anecdote up to controlled trial. - Evaluation design: plan how the effect will be measured before rollout begins.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

Policies are usually adopted on plausibility and then defended, so errors persist because no feedback loop exists to correct them. Building measurement into the policy creates that loop: a counterfactual shows what would have happened without the intervention, which separates the policy's real effect from underlying trends and selection effects. Over time graded evidence accumulates and displaces guesswork in later decisions.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evidence-based_policyZH · Explicit
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