Cognitive Scaffold

Preparing your thinking workspace

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MENTAL MODEL · M3543

Delphi Method

Delphi Method
BehaviorHigh supportPsychology
Included
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

A back-to-back expert consultation method. Experts anonymously answer questions without communicating with each other. After statistical results are compiled, they are fed back to experts for a second round of revision. Through multiple rounds of feedback, expert opinions converge.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

Group wisdom denoising. It eliminates authority effects and conformity (because it is anonymous and back-to-back). It is the most reliable method for forecasting when historical data is lacking and predictions rely mainly on expert experience.

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Anchor fast decisions

A back-to-back expert consultation method: experts anonymously answer without communication, statistical results are fed back, and multiple rounds of revision lead to convergence of opinions, using 'group wisdom denoising' to reduce authority and conformity biases.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

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    zh.wikipedia.orghttps://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%BE%B7%E5%B0%94%E8%8F%B2%E6%B3%95ZH · Explicit
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