MENTAL MODEL · M3442

Reverse Causality

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Updated 2026-07-31

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INTRODUCTION

English translation pending.

CORE DEFINITION

Reverse causality occurs when a relationship runs opposite to the assumed direction, or when both variables are driven by a third factor. More police may be posted where crime is already high, and tall people may be selected into basketball rather than made taller by it. Correlation alone cannot settle direction, so timing, randomization, natural experiments, or instrumental variables are needed to identify which way the arrow points.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

- Attribution Audit: ask which variable actually moves first, and why the arrow might point the other way. - Third-Factor Scan: look for a common cause that drives both variables at once and fakes a link. - Design Fix: choose randomization, instruments, or natural experiments to pin down direction.

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Observational data record co-movement, not direction. Because many plausible mechanisms run backwards, and because unobserved factors can push both variables at once, a correlation can appear with no forward effect at all. Only designs that exogenously shift one variable reveal which way the arrow points.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Practice this model in one real situation:

On seeing a correlation, ask who causes whom before acting. 2. List plausible third variables that could drive both. 3. Use timing, natural experiments, or randomization to test direction. 4. Check whether the reverse story fits the data equally well. 5. Treat your first causal intuition as a hypothesis, not a finding.

Check to track your progress (stored locally)

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Source support: Explicit

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en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endogeneity_(econometricsZH · Explicit
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