Crony Beliefs
Updated 2026-08-02
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
Crony beliefs are convictions adopted and defended for their social payoff rather than their truth value. Like cronyism in hiring, they serve the holder's position within a group: holding the belief signals membership, and abandoning it risks exclusion. The distinction matters because such beliefs are not evaluated by the standard applied to ordinary factual claims, so evidence and logic that would settle a technical question have little purchase on them. The term was popularised by writer Kevin Simler, and the pattern applies wherever identity and belief are fused.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Source Check: ask whether a belief came from evidence or from belonging to a group - Debate Triage: do not spend logical argument on a position that is bound up with identity - Cost Test: ask what the holder would lose socially by changing their mind
Anchor fast decisions
Group membership is enforced through shared signals, and beliefs are cheap, visible signals. Once a belief carries the cost of exclusion, contradicting evidence raises the price of changing it rather than lowering the belief, so argument makes the position firmer. The belief is doing social work, and social work is evaluated by loyalty rather than accuracy, which is why the same person can reason carefully about repairs and loosely about politics.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- arbital.obormot.nethttp://arbital.obormot.net/page/crony_belief.htmlverified
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