MENTAL MODEL · M2007

Collingridge Dilemma

TechnicalHigh supportArtificial Intelligence

Included

Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

The double dilemma of technological development: in the early stages, we cannot predict the consequences (easy to control but don't know what to control); in the mature stage, the consequences become apparent, but the technology has already become entrenched and embedded in society, making it impossible to change (know what to control but unable to control).

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

Regulatory timing. For AI or gene editing, regulation must find the extremely narrow window between 'ignorance' and 'inability'.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

The dilemma of technology control: early on, it is easy to change but hard to predict (don't know what to control); later, it is embedded in society and hard to change (know but can't control). The control window is extremely narrow between 'ignorance' and 'inability'.

MINIMUM ACTION

In progress 0/1

Practice this model in one real situation:

First, establish monitoring and impact assessment mechanisms early on. Second, reserve adjustable design interfaces (reversibility). Third, intervene in the narrow window before solidification. Fourth, use adaptive governance to deal with uncertainty.

Check to track your progress (stored locally)

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Source support: Explicit

link
zh.wikipedia.orghttps://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%A7%91%E6%9E%97%E6%A0%BC%E9%87%8C%E5%A5%87%E5%9B%B0%E5%A2%83ZH · Explicit
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