Cognitive Scaffold

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MENTAL MODEL · M0149

Maes-Garreau Law

Maes-Garreau Law
TechnicalHigh supportArtificial Intelligence
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-28

CORE DEFINITION

The Maes–Garreau law is the statement that "most favorable predictions about future technology will fall within the Maes–Garreau point", defined as "the latest possible date a prediction can come true and still remain in the lifetime of the person making it". Specifically, it relates to predictions of a technological singularity or other radical future technologies.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

The Maes–Garreau law is the statement that "most favorable predictions about future technology will fall within the Maes–Garreau point", defined as "the latest possible date a prediction can come true".

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

The term is difficult to verify; it may be obscure or a translation difference. Do not fabricate; mark as 'to be verified'.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maes%E2%80%93Garreau_lawZH · Explicit
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