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MENTAL MODEL · M1468

Secular Stagnation

Secular Stagnation
BusinessHigh supportMacroeconomics
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

A state in which an economy experiences prolonged low growth, low inflation, and low interest rates due to structural reasons (such as population aging, slowing innovation, and excess savings), making it difficult for monetary policy alone to stimulate recovery.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

Adjust growth expectations. If the world enters secular stagnation, the past logic of 'buying a house with eyes closed to get rich' will fail. We need to seek structural opportunities (such as AI, biotechnology) rather than relying on aggregate growth.

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Anchor fast decisions

The economy falls into a state of chronic insufficient demand, sluggish growth, extremely low interest rates, and low investment, which short-term stimulus cannot reverse.

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secular_stagnationZH · Explicit
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