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MENTAL MODEL · M1218

Kondratiev Waves

Kondratiev Waves
BusinessHigh supportMacroeconomics
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

Capitalist economies exhibit ultra-long cycles of approximately 50-60 years, driven by fundamental technological revolutions (steam engine, railways, electricity, automobiles, information technology).

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

- Era positioning: 'One makes fortune by riding the Kondratiev wave.' Understand that we are currently in the declining phase of the fifth wave (information technology) and the introductory phase of the sixth wave (possibly AI/biotechnology). During cyclical downturns, individual efforts often cannot counter the macro trend.

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Kondratiev long waves refer to ultra-long economic fluctuations of about 50-60 years, driven by technological revolutions, infrastructure, and waves of investment, comprising both upward and downward phases. They are used to understand the succession of techno-economic paradigms.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

  • link
    zh.wikipedia.orghttps://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%BA%B7%E5%BE%B7%E6%8B%89%E5%AD%A3%E8%80%B6%E5%A4%AB%E9%95%BF%E6%B3%A2ZH · Explicit
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