MENTAL MODEL · M1331

Valence Effect

BehaviorHigh supportPsychology

Included

Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

Refers to the tendency of people to overestimate the probability of good events (optimism) and underestimate the probability of bad events. Alternatively, if an outcome is pleasant (positive valence), people are more likely to believe it is true.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

Calibrate predictive models. It explains why projects are always delayed (underestimating difficulties). When planning, one must artificially add weight to 'bad outcomes' and discount 'good outcomes' to counteract this instinctive bias.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

Valence refers to the emotional positive or negative attribute of a stimulus; the valence effect refers to people's asymmetric responses to positive and negative valence information in attention, memory, and judgment. Negative valence often receives higher weight (related to negativity bias).

MINIMUM ACTION

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Practice this model in one real situation:

When analyzing preferences or risk judgments, label the valence of information and compare weights. Use it to avoid misleading negative framing when designing prompts.

Check to track your progress (stored locally)

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Source support: Explicit

link
en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimism_biasZH · Explicit
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