Regression to the Mean
Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30
CORE DEFINITION
If a variable shows an extreme value (very good or very bad) on the first measurement, it tends to move closer to the average on the next measurement.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
Avoid attribution errors. When a poorly performing employee improves after criticism, or a well-performing employee declines after praise, it may not be that the criticism/praise was effective; it may simply be that luck regressed to the mean. It reminds us not to overreact to short-term fluctuations.
Anchor fast decisions
Regression to the mean refers to the phenomenon that after an extreme high or low value of a metric, subsequent measurements tend to move back toward the average. This is a manifestation of the variable's own fluctuation and measurement error, not the result of some 'pull'.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/4Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_meanverified
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