MENTAL MODEL · M0704

Lottery Factor

BusinessHigh supportManagement

Included

Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30

CORE DEFINITION

The Lottery Factor is the positive counterpart of the Bus Factor. If a key team member wins the lottery and suddenly resigns to travel the world, would the project stall?

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

Depersonalization of knowledge assets. It sounds more auspicious than 'being hit by a bus' (Bus Factor), but the core is the same: no one should be irreplaceable. It is essential to promote pair programming, job rotation, and documentation to ensure that knowledge belongs to the organization, not the individual.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

The Lottery Factor is the positive counterpart of the Bus Factor: if a key team member wins the lottery and suddenly resigns, would the project stall? It emphasizes the importance of depersonalizing knowledge assets.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Practice this model in one real situation:

List key roles that cannot be replaced
check if their work can be taken over by others
promote pairing, documentation, and rotation
shift from 'luck dependence' to 'system robustness'.

Check to track your progress (stored locally)

Learning progress0%

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Source support: Explicit

link
en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bus_factorZH · Explicit
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