Shadow of the Future
Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30
CORE DEFINITION
Cooperation arises because both parties in a game expect to meet again in the future. If the probability of future encounters (the shadow) is large enough, the cost of betrayal will exceed the short-term gains.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
Long-term incentive. If you want others to cooperate with you, you must convince them that we will deal with each other in this lifetime. Increasing the 'expectation of continuity' in a relationship is the fastest way to build trust.
Anchor fast decisions
Axelrod proposed the 'shadow of the future' in his cooperation research: if both parties expect future interactions, they are more willing to cooperate in the present; the longer the shadow (the more certain the re-encounter), the easier cooperation becomes. The mechanism is that the future constrains the present.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- bohrium.comhttps://www.bohrium.com/sciencepedia/feynman/keyword/iterated_prisoner_s_dilemmaverified
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