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MENTAL MODEL · M0468

Reference Class Forecasting

Reference Class Forecasting
DecideHigh supportDecision Science
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-28

CORE DEFINITION

Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. The theories behind reference class forecasting were developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The theoretical work helped Kahneman win the Nobel Prize in Economics.

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Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. The theories behind reference class forecasting were developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The theoretical work helped Kahneman win the Nobel Prize in Economics.

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Proposed by Kahneman and Lovallo, it uses the distribution of similar historical projects (reference class) for extrapolation, counteracting the over-optimism bias caused by planning fallacy.

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecastingZH · Explicit
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