Thucydides Trap

CORE DEFINITION

The Thucydides Trap is a term coined by American political scientist Graham Tillett Allison, Jr. to describe the potential for direct military conflict when a rising power threatens to displace an existing great power. The term gained rapid popularity in 2015 and is frequently used in analyses of US-China relations. It is based on a passage from the ancient Athenian general and historian Thucydides, who argued that the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta was inevitable because Sparta feared the growth of Athenian power. To support this argument, Allison led a research project at Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, which found that in 16 historical instances where a rising power competed with an existing hegemon, 12 ended in war. However, the study has faced considerable criticism, and scholarly opinion remains divided on the value of the concept, particularly its relevance to potential military conflict between the US and China.