MENTAL MODEL · M0044

The Adjacent Possible

SystemsHigh supportComplexity Science

Included

Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-28

CORE DEFINITION

The adjacent possible is, at any moment, the set of new possibilities reachable given society's current information, resources, and abilities. Kauffman originated it in biology to describe self-organizing complex systems; Johnson applied it to innovation. Successfully implemented ideas almost always come from within the adjacent possible, because they are understandable and achievable when created. Ideas outside it may be excellent but lack the knowledge or resources to be realized at the time, and must wait until the boundary expands. Each new realized combination pushes the boundary outward, so possibilities grow exponentially. This also explains "the multiple" — the same invention discovered independently by people sharing the same knowledge base.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

- Innovation path planning: plan the next reachable combination at the edge of current capabilities rather than a fantasy leap several steps ahead. - Evolutionary lens: explains why inventions are often made simultaneously by different people — they share the same knowledge base and adjacent possible. - Timing: judge whether an idea is doable now (inside the adjacent possible) or premature (missing enabling conditions); record premature ideas instead of forcing them.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

New structures arise only from recombinations of existing components and must fall within the currently reachable range; each successful combination enlarges the feasible domain for the next moment, so the boundary advances stepwise rather than by arbitrary leaps.

MINIMUM ACTION

In progress 0/1

Practice this model in one real situation:

List the components, tools, and knowledge currently available in your field. 2) Pick a target problem and, using only items from the list, draft three one-step-reachable options. 3) For each option, confirm the required resources already exist. 4) Implement one, then add the newly gained resources back to the list.

Check to track your progress (stored locally)

Learning progress0%

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Source support: Explicit

link
shortform.comhttps://www.shortform.com/blog/adjacent-possible-steven-johnson/EN · Explicit
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link
shortform.comhttps://www.shortform.com/blog/adjacent-possible-steven-johnson/EN
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