Cognitive Scaffold

Preparing your thinking workspace

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MENTAL MODEL · M0023

Clarke's First Law

Clarke's First Law
Learn & MetacognitionHigh supportCognitive Science
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-28

CORE DEFINITION

Clarke’s first law is Arthur C. Clarke’s adage that a distinguished but elderly scientist is almost certainly right in declaring something possible, but very probably wrong in declaring it impossible. This is a rhetorical caution about forecasting, not a measured expert error rate.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

Question declarations of impossibility while distinguishing limitations of present methods from genuine logical or physical constraints.

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

The adage suggests that established experience can constrain imagination about new paths. It provides neither a probability theorem nor a guarantee that an expert’s negative judgment is wrong.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarke%27s_three_lawsEN · Explicit
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