Dutch Book Arguments
Updated 2026-09-10
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
The Dutch book argument supports probabilism: if a person's degrees of belief violate the probability axioms, a set of bets, a Dutch book, can be constructed that guarantees a loss in every possible outcome, so violating the axioms is practically incoherent. The argument traces to Ramsey and de Finetti and is also used to justify conditionalization as the rule for updating beliefs.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Audit beliefs: check whether degrees of confidence satisfy the probability axioms and remove inconsistent judgments. - Convert to odds: translate vague confidence into acceptable betting odds so strengths become comparable. - Correct calibration: when a set of judgments guarantees loss, lower the overconfident probability assignments.
Anchor fast decisions
Degrees of belief are mapped onto acceptable betting odds, and once they violate the probability axioms, the prices of the various bets are arithmetically inconsistent: an opponent can combine bets so that your net payoff is negative whatever happens. The defect is therefore not a matter of luck in winning or losing but of your own valuation scheme leaving an arbitrage opportunity.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- plato.stanford.eduhttps://plato.stanford.edu/entries/dutch-book/verified
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