An Arrogant Army Invites Defeat
Updated 2026-08-22
INTRODUCTION
English translation pending.
CORE DEFINITION
The maxim states that troops who become arrogant and despise their enemy will be defeated however strong they may be. As a model it names the winner's curse and success inertia: a string of victories creates a feeling of omnipotence, so the winner stops scouting the environment and overlooks emerging risks. It is the standard prelude to the collapse of once-dominant companies.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
- Winner's audit: after each victory, write down the market risks you have stopped checking - Red team: assign a colleague to attack your assumptions and current plans directly - Vigilance budget: keep scouting and contingency spending high while you are ahead
Anchor fast decisions
Repeated success lowers the felt need for information. When results keep coming, attention shifts from scanning the environment to confirming one's own competence, and warning signals get filed as noise. Vigilance and preparation decay quietly, so the first real change in conditions meets a team that has already stopped looking.
MINIMUM ACTION
In progress 0/1Practice this model in one real situation:
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Source support: Explicit
- zh.wikipedia.orghttps://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%B1%89%E4%B9%A6verified
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