Natural Experiment
Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-30
CORE DEFINITION
A quasi-experimental method that uses naturally occurring events (such as policy changes, natural disasters) as 'experimental interventions' to study their causal effects. Researchers do not control the assignment of variables but exploit the 'natural randomness' created by exogenous events. Scaffolding role: conducting experiments where experiments are impossible. When ethical or practical constraints prevent random assignment (e.g., studying the health effects of smoking), natural experiments provide an alternative path for causal inference.
SCAFFOLDING EFFECT
Reduce cognitive load
Conducting experiments where experiments are impossible. When ethical or practical constraints prevent random assignment (e.g., studying the health effects of smoking), natural experiments provide an alternative path for causal inference.
Anchor fast decisions
Natural experiments rely on 'exogenous shocks'—external events that are uncorrelated with the outcome variable but change the independent variable (e.g., abrupt policy changes, natural disasters), approximating a random assignment to the population. Researchers treat the affected group as the treatment group and the unaffected group as the control group, comparing outcome differences to estimate causal effects. Its validity depends on whether the shock is truly exogenous (independent of potential outcomes) and operates only through the intended channel.
MINIMUM ACTION
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- zh.wikipedia.orghttps://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%87%AA%E7%84%B6%E5%AE%9E%E9%AA%8Cverified
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