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MENTAL MODEL · M11583

Newcomb's Paradox

Newcomb's Paradox
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-28

CORE DEFINITION

In philosophy and mathematics, Newcomb's problem, also known as Newcomb's paradox, is a thought experiment posing a decision problem in which a player must decide whether to choose one of two or both boxes under conditions in which a being, often called the "predictor", decides in advance what they contain, and is able to predict the player's choices with near-certainty.

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In philosophy and mathematics, Newcomb's problem, also known as Newcomb's paradox, is a thought experiment posing a decision problem in which a player must decide whether to choose one of two or both

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Same as Newcomb's paradox: A super predictor presents two boxes, Box A transparent with $1,000, Box B opaque with $1 million or nothing; if you take only B, it contains $1 million; if you take both, it contains nothing. Causal decision theory says take only B (since the prediction is already made), while evidential decision theory says take both (based on correlation with the prediction). Belief determines strategy.

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb%27s_problemZH · Explicit
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